Coal Fired Power Plants
Business Model Description
Finance and develop a coal fired power plants (100 - 300 MW) using clean coal technology that is capable of supplying firm baseload power to the main line grid. Clean Coal Technology (CCT) refers to the of use coal for power generation in more environmentally acceptable and economically viable ways. This can include the use of super-critical pulverised fuel and the use of carbon capture storage and utilisation. The power produced will subsequently be bought by the Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) under a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and be fed into the grid. The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM), the Single Buyer, is the only authorized buyer of all power and energy within Malawi.
Expected Impact
Provide an energy baseload alternative to hydropower to achieve grid stability, which will assist in decreasing operational costs of industry in Malawi, contributing positively to overall Malawi economic growth.
How is this information gathered?
Investment opportunities with potential to contribute to sustainable development are based on country-level SDG Investor Maps.
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Country & Regions
- Malawi: Southern
- Malawi: Northern
Sector Classification
Infrastructure
Development need
A key priority of the government is to build new infrastructure so that it can withstand climate shocks and stressors (6). The Africa SDG Index and Dashboards Report 2019, on SDG 9 regarding Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, indicates that Malawi has “significant or major challenges” in achieving this SDG (7). The country's infrastructure performance is ranked 132 out of 141 countries in the WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2019, with a declining trend over 2018 (8). There is need to upgrade infrastructure to accelerate the economic transformation and broaden access to electricity and ICT.
Policy priority
MW2063 and it's first 10-year implementation plan (MIP-1) prioritizes infrastructure development and investment in secondary cities to provide economic opportunities, easy communication and closer connectivity to socio-economic amenities (2).
Gender inequalities and marginalization issues
Expansion of the electricity grid and the digital network would reduce the need for energy sources like firewood, charcoal and paraffin, and offer opportunities for e-learning and e-business therewith improving the living, learning and business conditions for women, girls and MSMEs (13).
Investment opportunities introduction
Malawi faces a USD 1.8 billion funding gap to fund USD 2.5 billion in capital investment requirements for the power sector in the lowest-cost scenario to achieve a generation capacity in line with projected peak demand (1000 MW) by 2030 (10).
Key bottlenecks introduction
The development of trade and transport infrastructure is a critical need for Malawi. The quality of the country’s roads, rail, and ICT systems scored the lowest across all indicators in the most recent World Bank Logistics Performance Index. Landlocked, Malawi has few routes to market—with three primary trade corridors and almost all freight transported by truck (30).
Utilities
Development need
Only 16% of Malawians have access to electricity - with a worryingly declining trend - compared to a world average of 91% (14). Malawi’s power generation is heavily dependent on weather conditions as about 98% of electricity is generated by hydroelectric power stations. Thus, low water levels during drought periods and silting during the rainy season disrupt electricity generation. This overreliance on hydropower for energy provision further increases the country’s vulnerability to climate changes (2).
Policy priority
Malawi has recently launched it's long-term Vision MW 2063 (1) and the second pillar of Industrialisation focuses on inter alia Investment in Power Generation and Access to electricity. The Government is committed to increasing Malawi’s generation capacity by 1000 MW by 2025. The first 10-year MW2062 implementation plan targets to diversifying the number of independent power producers, largely focusing on renewable and sustainable energy to reduce the over dependence on hydro-generated power from just one river (2). MW2063 and it's first 10-year implementation plan (MIP-1) aims to increase access to electricity to 50% by 2030 while matching the proportion of energy generation to that of energy demand (32).
Gender inequalities and marginalization issues
Energy poverty, one aspect of broader economic poverty, has distinct gender characteristics that disproportionately affect women and girls. Women and girls are often primarily responsible for collecting fuel and water at the community level. Also, poor women tend to participate in the informal economic sector (for example, the food sector), which relies strongly on biomass as its main energy source, which, in turn, does not feature heavily in national energy policies and priorities (11).
Investment opportunities introduction
The Government has classified the energy sector among the priority industries, with entitlement to special incentives. It has also opened up the energy sector to both public and private sector investments to ensure that power deficiencies are addressed with a view to ultimately improve access to electricity in the country. In this regard, there is an Independent Power Producer (IPP) framework that helps to promote and incentivize investments in power production, sustain purchase costs for power from independent producers and thus encouraging wider participation (4).
Key bottlenecks introduction
Malawi has a high population density, and the current population growth rate of 2.8% is outpacing the rate of electrification. The national grid does not produce enough electricity to satisfy demand and the physical reach of the grid does not include most rural areas (12).
Electric Utilities and Power Generators
Pipeline Opportunity
Coal Fired Power Plants
Finance and develop a coal fired power plants (100 - 300 MW) using clean coal technology that is capable of supplying firm baseload power to the main line grid. Clean Coal Technology (CCT) refers to the of use coal for power generation in more environmentally acceptable and economically viable ways. This can include the use of super-critical pulverised fuel and the use of carbon capture storage and utilisation. The power produced will subsequently be bought by the Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) under a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and be fed into the grid. The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM), the Single Buyer, is the only authorized buyer of all power and energy within Malawi.
Business Case
Market Size and Environment
> USD 1 billion
< 5%
The gap between energy production and demand is forecast to widen due to economic and population growth. The Current Path forecast is that the proportion of energy production to energy demand will be 61.5% by 2030, below the Malawi government target of 100% in the same year. According to the Integrated National Resource Plan, the base forecast estimates that maximum demand will reach 719 MW by 2020, 1,873 MW by 2030 and 4,620 MW by 2040 (34). It is estimated that Malawi will need to mobilize USD 3 billion by 2030 to close this energy gap (3).
Malawi may have the potential to export energy to the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP), a cooperation of the national electricity companies in Southern Africa under the auspices of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) (4). SADC has a total installed generation capacity of 71,653 MW as of 2023 (16) with a projected demand of 96,000 MW by 2027 (17).
The annual average national energy demand growth rates are 17.5% through to 2020, and 10% per annum from 2020 to 2030. The integrated resource plan makes provision for a total of three 300 MW Coal Fired Power Plant (CFPP) as the maximum (34).
Indicative Return
5% - 10%
A report surveying the economics of 600 MW pure condensing coal fired power units in different provinces in China and under multiple scenarios sets the full investment IRR of a 600 MW coal-fired power plant at 6.6% and the proprietary funds IRR is set to 8% (19).
Investment Timeframe
Long Term (10+ years)
Typical payback periods for plants of 300 MW size is nearly 10 years (36).
Ticket Size
> USD 10 million
Market Risks & Scale Obstacles
Business - Supply Chain Constraints
Market - Highly Regulated
Impact Case
Sustainable Development Need
In 2022, Malawi ranked fourth lowest in energy access in Africa, just ahead of South Sudan, Chad, and Burundi. In 2023, its electricity access rate was estimated at 19% (45% in cities and 5% in rural areas), showing that access rose from 11% in 2018 with the expansion of the private sector-led, off-grid solar home system, while the percentage of access linked to the national grid has remained stagnant at about 12% (41). Without investment in the energy sector in coming years, Malawi’s private sector will not be able to grow, and existing divides in energy access could widen, worsening socio-economic conditions for poor and remote communities (30).
Malawi’s dependence on hydropower makes it especially vulnerable to climate related weather events, which have increased in frequency, intensity, and magnitude over the last two decades in Malawi. These include prolonged dry spells, seasonal droughts, intense rainfall, riverine floods, and flash floods. As these events become more frequent, Malawi will be forced to increase load shedding and blackouts unless they are able to diversify their electricity generation profile (35).
350 MW of Malawi's generation capacity comes from hydropower production, but due to frequent infrastructure and equipment breakdowns, these plants average a production capacity of approximately 150 MW/year (35). According to Malawi's Ministry of Energy, the mining sector's projected minimum demand alone is estimated to be 800 MW by 2035 (21.1).
According to the Mini-Integrated Resource Plan for Malawi, and the Integrated Resource Plan for Malawi, a number of solar PV plants will be commissioned in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) period (2016-2020), however it will not have any effect on the peak demand which is usually an evening peak for Malawi (33). In order to achieve Malawi's industrialisation ambitions, Malawi would need stable baseload to accommodate the mining sector. The need to ensure security and reliability of electricity supply is a theme that runs through the current Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) analysis (34).
A key issue for Malawi's energy security is its dependence on imported petroleum products. The country is highly vulnerable to oil price shocks as it imports almost all of its 8,000 barrels of oil per day (20). The government of Malawi has purchased generators from Indian company Aggreko. These diesel generators have unfortunately, proved unreliable as they were supposed to supply the country with an additional 78 MW of energy to be distributed through ESCOM national grid. However, they largely have failed to improve power supply due to the cost of diesel in Malawi (43).
Gender & Marginalisation
In rural areas, the time-consuming task of gathering firewood is borne by women and girls, who are then diverted from other activities such as education and farming that could eventually have improved their productivity and living conditions. In Malawi, rural women spend 9.1 hours a week collecting firewood and water compared to men’s 1.1 hours (30).
Research has shown that women and children disproportionally bear the negative health effects of using kerosene and biomass (30).
Expected Development Outcome
Coal fired power plants will improve electricity availability through the national grid, including reduced prices and fewer blackouts, and would have a positive effect on citizens and major industries, such as mining, that could catalyse economic growth.
Malawi's generation expansion plan makes provision for a diverse energy mix including solar, wind, hydro and biomass. However, each solar and wind plant is relatively small, and in particular the intermittent plants would need to be strategically placed in terms of location in order for such generation to support the grid, hence the importance of utilising coal in the meantime (34).
The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOMs) grid can only absorb limited amount of power from variable renewable sources such as wind, solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). Some preliminary assessments have indicated that the grid can only take up to 20 MW of such variable power source on the existing network. Solar PV technology takes lots of land and for a country like Malawi with very high population density this needs to be handled with care. In situations like these, reclaimable land can be used (33).
As overall grid connectivity improves due to increased generation capacity, deforestation will decrease. Studies show that grid electricity reduces firewood consumption by approximately 0.83–2.09 cubic meters per month and electrified households are approximately 61–71% less likely to use kerosene as lighting fuel (13).
Gender & Marginalisation
Modern and reliable energy is essential for economic development and women’s empowerment. Time saved from wood and fuel collection could be effectively used for new business opportunities. In South Africa, female employment in newly electrified communities rose by almost 10% because of the improved efficiency in carrying out domestic tasks (24).
Primary SDGs addressed
7.1.1 Proportion of population with access to electricity
17% (2022) (6).
100% (2023) (23).
8.1.1 Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita
3.9% (2021) (23).
7% (2030) (23).
9.2.1 Manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and per capita
11.8% (2021) (23).
25% (2030) (23).
Secondary SDGs addressed
Directly impacted stakeholders
People
Gender inequality and/or marginalization
Planet
Corporates
Public sector
Indirectly impacted stakeholders
People
Corporates
Public sector
Outcome Risks
The recent downward trend of global investment in coal-fired power plants shown in the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2021 report reflects both the growing sentiment that new coal power generation capacity is misaligned with achieving a net-zero economy by 2050, and the diminishing economic case for coal versus alternative generation sources (27).
A critical mass of private financiers has taken steps to curb direct financing of emissions-intensive activity, such as coal-fired electricity generation. 53 financial institutions representing nearly one quarter of global banking assets have joined the UN’s Net Zero Banking Alliance, which reflects a commitment to aligning the institutions’ loan portfolios with net-zero emissions by 2050 (27).
Without sufficient, parallel investment in supporting grid infrastructure, a coal plant risks being stranded on commissioning, preventing it from realizing the benefits of baseload generation that coal-fired power can theoretically provide while leaving financial and environmental costs to bear (27).
The mining and coal use are associated with significant environmental impacts. The local environmental hazards of coal vary from place to place. While some communities are most affected by air pollution from coal-fired power plants, others endure toxic groundwater from mining. The large scale mining and burning of coal emits greenhouse gases responsible for global climate change (42).
However, Malawi needs to improve its energy mix for reliable generation capacity. Malawi's power demand will vary cyclically from day to day, reaching maximum during day business hours and dropping to minimum during late night and early morning, but never dropping below a certain base. This base load is typically at 30-40% of the maximum load, so the amount of load assigned to base load plants is tuned to that level. The above-base power demand (above the base) is handled by intermediate and peak power plants, which are also included to the grid (42). Considering Malawi wants ramp up generation capacity to 1,873 MW by 2030, 30% - 40% (561 - 749 MW) would need to be firm base load (34).
Impact Risks
The increased electricity supply may not reach those most in need because they are not connected to the grid.
Impact Classification
What
A clean technology coal fired power plant as part of a diversified energy mix that includes renewable energy will contribute to the generation capacity and affordable baseload energy required to support Malawi's industrialisation ambitions.
Who
Large industries benefit from higher availability of electricity during peak demand and experience fewer black-outs.
Risk
The increased electricity generation and availability in the grid might not reach some of the rural population most in need.
Contribution
Zambia-Malawi and Mozambique-Malawi interconnectors are high priority projects that can help the government meet short-term power needs without capital investment in new generation projects (45).
How Much
Electricity shortages are estimated to cost the country around 2-3% of GDP (20). There are over 200 MW of suppressed demand (the total installed capacity of Malawi is 536 MW) that has not been met by the existing supply (46).
Impact Thesis
Provide an energy baseload alternative to hydropower to achieve grid stability, which will assist in decreasing operational costs of industry in Malawi, contributing positively to overall Malawi economic growth.
Enabling Environment
Policy Environment
Malawi 2063 states that the country shall continue investing in the energy sector beyond hydro, which is currently the main source of energy. Alternative sources, including solar, coal and thermal, shall be tapped into, in ways that avoid or minimize environmental degradation (31).
Malawi's Energy Policy of 2018 seeks to guide planning and implementation of programmes, projects and activities in the energy sector with the aim of increasing access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, efficient and modern energy services for every person in the country. Under Policy Priority Area 6 it states that the Government will promote coal as a fuel for power generation and as an alternative for household, tobacco curing and other applications through the implementation of environmentally friendly coal-fired electricity generation projects (38).
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for Malawi of 2017 is a follow-on to a Mini-IRP study completed in 2015. The Plan's aim is to prepare a least-cost investment plan in generation, transmission and demand-side measures covering the 20 year period 2017 to 2037 (34).
Financial Environment
Financial incentives: The Export–Import Bank of China provides concessional loans with no or low interests. It offers a range of financing and trade finance instruments, including demand guarantees. Any overseas company benefitting from the guaranteed investment needs to be partly or fully owned by a Chinese parent company (25.1).
Fiscal incentives: The Malawi Government has, through the Taxation (Priority Industries) Regulations 2013, designated two industries as priority, one of which is the electricity generation, transmission and distribution. The companies that are accorded the Priority Industry status are given either 0% Corporate Income Tax rates for a period not exceeding 10 years or 15% income tax rate; provided that an additional 5% of taxable income is charged for companies not incorporated in Malawi (39).
Other incentives) The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) is a member of the World Bank and aims to promote cross-border investment in developing countries by providing guarantees (political risk insurance and credit enhancement) to investors and lenders (17). Investors can apply for MIGA guarantees to the value of the investment. Companies must be incorporated in a member country or majority-owned by nationals of a member country to be eligible.
Regulatory Environment
The Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) is the custodiam of the Malawi Feed-In Tariff Policy 2012 which regulates the details of Power Purchase Agreements to feed access electricity into the national grid (26).
The Energy Regulation Act of 2007 aims to establish the Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) to regulate the energy sector, to define the functions and powers of the Energy Regulatory Authority, to provide for licensing of energy undertakings (22.1).
The Electricity Act of 2007 makes provisions for the regulation of the generation, transmission, wheeling distribution, sale, importation and exportation, use and safety of electricity (23.1).
The Environmental Management Act of 1996 (revised in 2004) makes provision for the protection and management of the environment and the conservation and sustainable utilization of natural resources (24.1).
Marketplace Participants
Private Sector
Rukuru Power Company Limited, Hubei Electric Power Construction Engineering Co, Zagaf Cement, China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC).
Government
Electricity Generation Company (EGENCO) of Malawi, Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA), Electricity Generation Company (Malawi) Limited (EGENCO), and Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) Ltd, the state transmission and distribution company. ESCOM is the system and market operator (SMO) as well as the single buyer of electricity generated throughout the country (37).
Multilaterals
World Bank Group, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Development Bank (CDB).
Public-Private Partnership
Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) purchases generated electricity through a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) (4).
Target Locations
Malawi: Southern
Malawi: Northern
References
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